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Insider Trades

Form 4 open-market buys (P) & sales (S) joined with forward stock returns at +1W / +1M / +3M / +6M (last 5 years, mechanical codes excluded)

Code

Role

Plan

Cluster ≥

Trade Date	Ticker	Insider	Code	Plan	Shares	Price	Value	Score	+1W	+1M	+3M	+6M	Filing

Min trades composite alpha = avg buy +3M return − avg discretionary sell +3M return, weighted by trade count. Higher = better.

Avg forward return

Post-April 2023 only. Disc sells should underperform plan sells if the signal is real.

Hit rate

% of buys that went up / sells that went down. 50% = coin flip.

Distribution of +3M forward returns (post-April 2023)

Look for asymmetry: buy distribution leaning right, disc sell distribution leaning left.

Insider	Role	Most active in	Buys n	Avg +3M after buy	Hit% (buy)	Disc sells n	Avg +3M after disc sell	Hit% (sell)	Composite alpha

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